Demographics

Total Fertility Rate

Average number of children per woman

Children per Woman
Key events
Common Claim

Birth rates collapsed after 1971 as economic conditions made raising children unaffordable.

What the Data Shows

The fertility rate dropped from 3.6 to 1.8 between 1960 and 1976 — the decline began a full decade before 1971. The primary drivers were the birth control pill (1960), women's education and career access, and changing social norms.

Perspectives

skeptic

The decline started in 1960, not 1971

This chart is one of the weakest on wtfhappenedin1971.com. The fertility decline began with the Pill's FDA approval in 1960 and accelerated through the 1960s. By 1971, the decline was nearly complete. The gold standard is irrelevant — this is a demographic transition driven by reproductive technology and women's rights.

neutral

Reproductive technology and social change, not monetary policy

Every developed country has experienced this transition — the 'demographic transition' is one of the most studied phenomena in social science. Countries with gold-backed currencies, fiat currencies, and everything in between all show declining fertility as women gain education and reproductive autonomy.

believer

Economic insecurity made families unaffordable

The post-2007 decline is harder to explain with reproductive technology alone. Young adults increasingly cite economic reasons for delaying or forgoing children: housing costs, student debt, childcare expenses, job instability. The economic deterioration that began after 1971 created conditions where family formation became financially prohibitive.

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Causal Factors

Birth control pill (1960)

35%

The Pill gave women reliable control over reproduction for the first time. Fertility dropped 38% within 5 years of the Pill's approval.

Goldin & Katz (2002)

Women's education & career access

25%

Women's college enrollment surged after Title IX (1972). Higher education delays childbearing and reduces completed family size.

National Center for Education Statistics

Changing social norms

15%

Cultural expectations shifted from early marriage and large families to individual fulfillment, career achievement, and smaller families.

Pew Research Center

Rising child-rearing costs

15%

The cost of raising a child rose to ~$310,000 (2023 dollars). Housing, childcare, education, and healthcare costs made large families expensive.

USDA, Brookings Institution

Legal access to abortion

10%

Roe v. Wade (1973) provided a legal option for unplanned pregnancies, contributing to lower birth rates.

Guttmacher Institute

Data Source

CDC National Center for Health Statistics, World Bank

View original data

Last updated: 2024-01

Key Events

1957

Baby boom peak

Fertility peaks at 3.67 children per woman

1960

The Pill approved

FDA approves oral contraceptives — fertility immediately drops

1965

Griswold v. Connecticut

Supreme Court legalizes contraception for married couples

1971

Nixon Shock

Gold standard ends — but fertility had already plunged from 3.65 to 2.27

1973

Roe v. Wade

Supreme Court legalizes abortion nationwide

2007

Pre-recession peak

Fertility briefly rises to 2.12 before declining again