Prices & Inflation

Healthcare Costs vs Median Income

Per-capita national health expenditure in nominal dollars

Per Capita Health Spending
Key events
Common Claim

Healthcare became unaffordable after 1971 when fiat money caused prices to spiral.

What the Data Shows

Healthcare spending per capita rose from $146 in 1960 to $14,570 in 2023, vastly outpacing income growth. The causes are structural: third-party payment systems, administrative complexity, drug pricing, aging demographics, and technological advances that add cost without market discipline.

Perspectives

skeptic

Healthcare costs are a structural market failure, not a monetary phenomenon

Countries on the gold standard historically had the same healthcare cost trajectories. The US spends 17% of GDP on healthcare while getting worse outcomes than countries spending 10-12%. This is a market structure problem, not a money problem.

neutral

Structural incentives, demographics, and technology drive healthcare inflation

The timing partially aligns with 1971, but Medicare and Medicaid (1965) were already transforming the market before the gold standard ended. The real acceleration came from structural incentives that reward volume over value and opacity over transparency.

believer

Fiat money enabled unlimited government healthcare spending

Government healthcare spending went from near-zero to $2 trillion annually because fiat money removed the fiscal constraint. This demand-side explosion, funded by money printing, is the primary driver of healthcare price inflation.

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Causal Factors

Third-party payment & price opacity

30%

When insurance or government pays, consumers don't see true costs and providers face weak price competition. 90% of healthcare spending is paid by third parties.

CMS National Health Expenditure Data

Administrative complexity

25%

The US spends ~34% of healthcare dollars on administration — billing, coding, insurance processing. Canada spends ~17%. This adds ~$1 trillion in unnecessary costs annually.

JAMA (Himmelstein et al.)

Drug pricing & patent monopolies

20%

US drug prices are 2-3x higher than other developed nations. Patent protections and lack of government negotiation (until 2022 IRA) keep prices high.

RAND Corporation

Technology adoption without cost discipline

15%

New medical technologies are adopted for marginal benefits without cost-effectiveness analysis, unlike other countries that use bodies like NICE (UK).

Health Affairs

Aging population

10%

The 65+ population has grown from 9% to 17% since 1960. Per-capita healthcare spending for seniors is 3-5x higher than for younger adults.

Census Bureau

Data Source

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), National Health Expenditure Data

View original data

Last updated: 2024-12

Key Events

1965

Medicare & Medicaid created

Government enters healthcare market, dramatically expanding demand and coverage

1973

HMO Act

Health Maintenance Organization Act encourages managed care

1983

DRG system

Medicare shifts to prospective payment, changing hospital incentives

2003

Medicare Part D

Prescription drug benefit adds major new government spending

2010

Affordable Care Act

ACA expands coverage to millions but adds system complexity