Union Membership vs Middle Class Income Share
Union membership rate and middle class share of aggregate income, both declining together
“Union decline and middle class erosion both trace back to the economic disruption of leaving the gold standard.”
Union membership peaked at ~35% in the mid-1950s and fell to 10% by 2023. Middle class income share fell from 62% in 1970 to 42% in 2020. The correlation is strong and well-documented. The causes are policy choices: Taft-Hartley Act, right-to-work laws, NLRB weakening, and employer anti-union tactics.
Perspectives
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Union decline and middle class erosion share common causes
Both trends were driven by globalization, deindustrialization, policy choices, and technological change. The correlation between them is well-established and likely partly causal.
Research by Western and Rosenfeld (2011) estimates that union decline accounts for one-third of the increase in male wage inequality. The correlation is not coincidental — unions compress wages and increase middle-class bargaining power. Their decline removed a key institutional support for middle-class incomes.
Causal Factors
Anti-union policy & legislation
30%Taft-Hartley (1947), right-to-work laws in 28 states, and weakening of NLRB enforcement made union organizing increasingly difficult.
Globalization & manufacturing decline
25%The sectors with highest unionization (manufacturing, mining) shrank as jobs moved overseas, while growing service sectors were hard to organize.
Employer anti-union campaigns
20%Companies spend ~$340M/year on union avoidance consultants. Illegal firing of union organizers increased 5x from 1960-2000, with weak penalties.
Structural shift to service economy
15%Service sector jobs — retail, food service, healthcare — have historically lower unionization rates due to small workplaces, high turnover, and part-time work.
Cultural & political shifts
10%Public approval of unions fell from 75% in 1957 to 48% in 2009 (recovering to 71% by 2022), reducing political support for pro-union policies.
Data Source
Key Events
Taft-Hartley Act
Restricts union power, allows states to pass right-to-work laws
Peak union density
Union membership reaches ~35% of the workforce
PATCO strike
Reagan fires 11,345 striking air traffic controllers, signaling open season on unions
Wisconsin Act 10
Governor Walker strips public sector collective bargaining rights
Janus v. AFSCME
Supreme Court rules public-sector unions cannot collect fees from non-members